East Coast Mariner

I’ve read about a dozen posts and seen about a thousand comments regarding whether or not the Mariners can/should acquire first basemen Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres. However, for some odd reason, I feel some sort of obligation to give my opinion (for whatever its worth) on the subject. So here it goes….

It’s pretty obvious that a player like Adrian Gonzalez would be a HUGE addition to the Mariners. Just entering his prime, Gonzalez will be 28 years old and is coming off a 6+ win season. Can you imagine what type of impact adding a 6 win player would do for the M’s. That said, Gonzalez was worth on average about 3.5 wins from 2006-2008 and is probably something more like a 4-4.5 win player going forward. Currently, the Mariners have Casey Kotchman, who projects as something like a 1-1.5 win player this year. Needless to say, adding an additional 3 wins to an already vastly improved lineup would be simply awesome. Also, keep in mind that Gonzalez will only earn $4.75 million in 2010 and has a 2011 club option for $5.5 million. As a result, it seems fairly clear that Gonzalez is the type of player the M’s would certainly be attracted to. However, the question that remains is whether or not Gonzalez will be available, and when it would make the most sense for the M’s to make a run at him.

At this point, I feel fairly confident the Padres will decide not to trade Gonzalez this offseason. Fact is, the Padres have to sell tickets and if the Padres want to sell tickets then they have to keep Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is undoubtedly the star player in the Padres organization(think what King Felix is to the M’s) and if they were to trade Gonzalez yet this offseason, their total fan base would go from something like 7 people to 0 in a heartbeat. That said, I’m also fairly confident that the Padres will not be a playoff team in 2010. Surely, the Padres would like to receive the largest possible return they can get on Gonzalez before they can no longer afford him after 2011. If this is the case, it would make much more sense from the Padres perspective to trade Gonzalez before the deadline in July to a team in the playoff hunt who desperately requires his services. This team in contention will almost certainly be willing to give the Padres a more substantial return than they would get if they waited until he is ready to enter his lame duck season in 2011. So, if the Padres are willing to trade Gonzalez at the deadline in July, who might be interested?

After looking at this list, some of the teams that might have interest in Gonzalez would be the Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays, Rangers, White Sox, Mariners, A’s, Braves, Mets, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers, and Angels. However, since were talking about the Padres trading Gonzalez at the deadline, many of these teams will not be in playoff contention, and therefore, will not be interested in acquiring Gonzalez at this time. Of these teams, the Orioles, Blue Jays, A’s, Mets, and Pirates will probably not be in contention come July. Also, the White Sox, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers and Angles are probably long shots to acquire Gonzalez because each team either already has an established first basemen, cant afford Gonzalez, or is in the same division as the Padres. So, who’s left?

Upon reviewing this revised list of potential destinations for Adrian Gonzalez, it would seem as though the teams that are the most likely fit are the Mariners and the Braves. Of these two teams, the Braves have the much stronger farm system and could most likely offer a more substantial package than the M’s could put together.

But as for my opinion you ask?

The Braves? Fuck the Braves!

Update: Baker reports the 1 year deal for Brandon League is worth $1.08 million. As of now, the only guy left to sign is Kotchman
Update: The M’s have signed Brandon League to a 1 year deal avoiding arbitration. As I type this, the amount of money in the contract hasnt yet been released

Baker with the scoop on the Felix extension, as well as interviews with Lowe and Aardsma regarding their new 1 year deals

Kirby Arnold covers the same topics over at the Herald

Divish sums up a nice piece done by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick on Jack Zduriencik

Shannon Drayer posts her thoughts on the Felix deal, and what it means to the Mariners

Dave Cameron breaks down the Felix deal like only he can over at Fangraphs

Jeff from Lookout Landing with a nice piece on the Felix contract and the State of the Payroll

Jon Shields of ProballNW gives the yearly breakdown on the Felix contract

Griffin Cooper over at SodoMojo takes a look at some theoretical future depth charts

Jason Churchill of ProspectInsider has the latest on the M’s interest in Ben Sheets and an up to date Mariners payroll in 2010

Harrison covers the trendy topic of Ben Sheets over at FarFromPort

Update: Jon Heyman is tweeting he has heard King Felix will receive a $3.5 million signing bonus and will make $20 million in the final year of his deal in 2014

Update: As if JackZ hasn’t been busy enough, the Mariners have announced they have resigned Mark Lowe to a 1 year $1.15 million deal and David Aardsma to a 1 year $2.75 million deal

Update: The word getting around is the extension is a 5 year deal worth $78 million. JackZ, you sir, are truly the coolest man alive…

ESPN is reporting the Mariners have locked up King Felix to a multi-year contract!! Numbers haven’t yet been announced, but this is obviously a huge deal! It’s getting real late on the east coast, and my first day of classes in my last semester of college start tomorrow  so I’m going to have to head to bed. I’ll update as soon as I’m up in the morning. Talk about going to bed with something great to sleep on…

Update: The Mariners have signed 1B Tommy Everidge to a major league contract. Everidge occupies the last spot on the 40 man roster. With conceivable spots left to fill, you’ve got to think JackZ has a couple more moves up his sleeve in the next month or so

Much speculation has been made regarding what the Mariners are going to do with that final roster spot they have available. FoxSports.com recently indicated the M’s have inquired about the services of Fernando Tatis. Jeff at Lookout Landing recently put up a nice post about this last roster spot, and what Fernando Tatis could potentially offer to the M’s. Griffin Cooper and the guys at SodoMojo also have explored the idea of bringing in Xavier Nady to fill this void, as well as their fondness for Michael Saunders.

With that being said, I don’t necessarily think any of the aforementioned players should be the primary solution for the Mariners. Like the guys at SodoMojo, I don’t think Nady is the answer here but I’m also very high on Michael Saunders, and think he certainly could (and should be) the Mariners left fielder of the future. However, I think Saunders might need a little more time in AAA to further hone his skills until he is ready to take over the gig full-time sometime this year, or in 2011. As Jeff pointed out, Tatis is no stud, but he would give the Mariners some versatility coming off the bench as a right-handed hitter who can play just about any position on the field.  An acquisition of Tatis would represent another solid (but not flashy) move by the Mariners. However. there happens to be one other name Jeff mentions in his post that I think would represent a better move by the M’s.

The guy I’m talking about is Jerry Hariston Jr. Like Tatis, Hariston is a right-handed bat that is not going to drastically impact the M’s in one way or the other. Nevertheless, Hariston is a solid player who has played every position on the field other than Catcher. Not only has Hariston played all these positions, he has actually played them all fairly well. Since the inception of UZR, Hariston has never posted a UZR below -0.5, and has been right around +2 or so the past 3 years. Quite miraculously, Hariston has actually posted a UZR of 27.5 in about 1800 innings of work in the outfield. At 33, Hariston is also about 2 years younger than Tatis, and has seen more than his fair share of playing time in the AL.

On the other hand, despite his superior defensive skills, Hariston doesn’t quite offer the same kind of bat that Tatis possesses. Tatis posted a .338 wOBA last year for the Mets and is probably something like a .280/.340/.780 guy going forward. In comparison, Hariston posted a .312 wOBA this past year for the Reds/Yankees, and is more like a .270/.320/.710 type of guy going forward. In addition, over the past 2 seasons, Tatis has been worth 3.1 WAR, or about 1.5 WAR per season. In comparison, Hariston has been worth 3.5 WAR, or about 1.75 per season. Obviously, the differences are rather minimal, and which player you prefer is probably a name recognition type of thing. However, given his versatility and superior defensive skillset, my prefernce is with Hariston.

In case anyone is wondering, I did not get the chance to attend the USSM/LL event that took place yesterday. Such is life of being a college student with no money for a plane ticket, while living on the complete opposite side of the country. But this post wasnt designed to create a “woah is me” kind of story, rather, to appreciate the magnificent fans/bloggers we have of the Seattle Mariners. Being surrounded by Philadelphia fans, I’ve really learned to appreciate  the sincerity, knowledge, and integrity that goes along with being a Mariners fan. It’s very refreshing to wake up every morning and not have to worry about whether or not my fellow fans are going to hop on the proverbial “band-wagon” every time my team goes from bad to good again. Not to mention whether or not my fellow fans are going to boo a player when he all but breaks his neck on the field, or blame the referees/umpires every time my team loses the game. Anyway, my point is I LOVE being a Seattle Mariner’s fan and I LOVE our front office!

Update: The Mariners have signed Chris Woodward to a minor league deal with a ST invite

Word out of Venezuela is the Mariners have all but locked up Franklin Gutierrez to a 4 year deal worth $20.5 million. Aside from King Felix, Death to Flying Things is surely the guy us as Mariner’s fans want to see on this team for a long long time. Fortunately, the M’s and JackZ have locked up Gutierrez during the prime of his career at an absolutely steal (assuming he stays healthy). The guys at Lookout Landing and Jon Shields of ProBallNW do a great job further breaking down the deal and explaining how much of a bargain this contract really is. Kudos to the M’s Front Office, they’ve done it again!

Now, arguably, the more controversial news of the day came when word broke out the Mariners have acquired first basemen Casey Kotchman from the Red Sox for Bill Hall, a PTBNL, and cash (?). Supposedly, the deal is not final yet but without going into too much detail, I’m kind of luke-warm on the deal. Kotchman is good defensively, but aside from a breakout 2007 season, he hasn’t been very good with the bat (especially for a first basemen). That said, Kotchman is most likely a 1-2 win player, and surely an upgrade over Mike Carp. However, it seems like a bit of an odd move by the M’s with guys like Laroche and Branyan still on the market, and players like Luke Scott and Brad Hawpe potentially available. Before it was known that Bill Hall was included in the deal, it was widely assumed that Kotchman would be the M’s starting first basemen. However, by my estimation, it seems as though there might be an outside chance the M’s may still look to further upgrade their first base situation considering they probably still have a roster spot available on the 25 man roster. Currently, the M’s roster looks something like this:

OF- Ichiro, Gutierrez, Langerhans

DH/OF- Bradley

C- Moore

IF- Figgins, Wilson, Lopez, Kotchman

Bench- Griffey, Hanahan, Johnson

Looking at that breakdown, you’ll notice a total of 12 players, leaving room for 1 additional spot. Ichiro, Gutierrez, and Langerhans are locks in the outfield. The M’s will carry 2 catchers with Johnson and Moore being the most likely candidates. Figgins, Wilson, and Lopez are starters at third, shortstop, and second respectively. Griffey is a pinch-hitter and will get some time at DH. Bradley is slated to get the majority of the playing time at DH and some occasional time in left field as well. Hanahan will come off the bench and can play any of the infield positions. Kotchman will play first base but it remains to be seen whether or not he is the starter there. As a result, this leaves one open spot and here are the possibilities:

• Michael Saunders is the M’s starting left fielder, with Bradley almost strictly a DH, and Langerhans the backup outfielder who can play all 3 OF spots. Kotchman is the first basemen. In terms of versatility, this is probably the Mariners best option
• Bradley gets a 25/75 split between left field and DH. Langerhans gets the rest of the playing time in left, while also remaining the backup outfielder at all 3 spots. A player is brought in (Branyan, Scott, Laroche) and receives the majority of playing time at first base. Kotchman is the backup first basemen but receives playing time at first base when the aforementioned player is the DH and Bradley is in left field. Rather confusing I know…
• Bradley is the left fielder. Langerhans is the backup outfielder at all 3 spots. A 1B/DH type is brought in and Kotchman and Griffey receive the leftover at bats

If your the Mariners, which option do you pick?

Update: The Red Sox have reportedly inked Adrian Beltre to a 1 year deal with an option in 2011. Well, that kind of sucks…

First and foremost, I’d like to apologize for the lack of activity that has been going on here at ECM over the past week or so. As I mentioned before, I’ve been incredibly busy lately and havent had much time to contribute as much as I’d like (and should) contribute to the loyal readers of this website. For that, I’d like to thank all of the dedicated followers for your patience. That said, I’m entertaining the possibility of bringing on someone to help contribute to East Coast Mariner. The reality is, I’m entering my last semester of college and upon graduation I’m going to be heading full steam ahead into the workforce. I’m incredibly excited about what I’m going to be doing but I realize I’m probably going to need some help in order to keep this site running the way I had originally intended. If any of you that read this site on a regular basis think you might be interested in contributing to ECM please feel free to email me at Svhoopsstar5@aol.com with your thoughts and we’ll see what we can get worked out

Anyway, enough with all that business stuff. Last week I revealed my first option at first base that didn’t include the likely names of Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado, Adam Laroche, or Luke Scott. The name I came up with was Nick Swisher. Unfortunately, as much as I like Nick Swisher, the Yankees trading  Melky Cabrera really threw some water on the fire of  my “Trade for Nick Swisher Campaign”. So, the bad news is the Mariners probably aren’t acquiring Nick Swisher anytime soon. However, the good news is I happen to have one other name that might even be a better acquisition than that of Nick Swisher. As you’ve probably already realized, that name is Brad Hawpe.

Before we get into the numbers that Hawpe is capable of producing, lets take a look to see if there really might be a fit here. Here’s what we know:

• The Rockies have a logjam of outfielders. Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith are all very capable starting outfielders. Ryan Spilbourghs and Eric Young Jr are toolsy outfielders and nice fill-in options. Then, there is also Brad Hawpe
• Hawpe is slated to earn more in 2010 ($6.5 million) than any of the other outfielders on the Rockies 40 man roster
• Hawpe was eventually benched towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs
• Hawpe played first base in college and Jim Tracy has implied he may see some time there if he stays with the Rockies to spell Todd Helton every now and then
• There was a rumor going around early in the offseason stating Hawpe could be had at the cost of a young, inexpensive reliever or two. Coincidentally, the Mariners happen to be loaded with these types of guys (Kelley, Lowe, Aardsma, White, League, Fields…)

Okay, so it would seem pretty evident that there very well could be a potential fit here. Now, lets take a look at the type of production at first base that Brad Hawpe could bring to the Mariners lineup:

• Hawpe has a career .377 OBP and hasnt dipped below the .380 mark in any of the past 4 years. This high OBP is aided by a career BB% of of 13.1% and hurt by a career 26.6 K%
• Brad Hawpe’s ISO has not dropped below the .215 mark in any of the previous 4 years. Additionally, his OPS has been right around .900 throughout the majority of his career
• Hawpe has produced a wOBA of .384 .379 .389 and .376 from 2006-2009. Bill James has Hawpe projected at .380 in 2010
• Brad Hawpe is incredibly bad in the outfield. Over the past 3 years, Hawpe has posted a UZR/150 of -25.9 -46.6 and -27.2
• Hawpe has been worth a total of 4.8 WAR over the past 4 years (or an average of 1.2 WAR each season)

Upon looking at these numbers, the one thing that is clear is that Brad Hawpe can really hit the ball. Despite his struggles against lefties, Hawpe has still managed to put up some very good numbers offensively, that would even translate well at first base. Unfortunately, Brad Hawpe’s value has really been hurt as a result of how bad he is in the outfield. That said, a move to first base could really fix this problem. If you assume that Hawpe is something like a -5 to -10 defender at first base, and project some regression in his HR/FB% as a result of a move from Coors Field to Safeco, you still come up with a guy who is worth approximately 3 wins above replacement. Of the guys left on the market, and potential trade targets like Lyle Overbay and Luke Scott, I’d venture to say Brad Hawpe is the best player amongst this group of guys. At the cost of a reliever or two, I’m all in favor of such a move

Update: The Mariners have signed catcher Josh Bard and pitcher Chad Cordero to minor league contracts with invitations to spring training

Unfortunately, I dont have time to properly break down the Morrow deal. I’ve been crazy busy doing an internship over winter break while also trying to get all my Christmas shoppping done and see some friends I havent seen while I was away at college. Overall, I guess my opinion of Brandon Morrow wasnt exactly the opinion expressed by many other front office exectuives throughout the league. I would have thought we’d get more than a reliever and an unproven prospect but I do very much like Brandon League as a bullpen arm and think this trade will work out well for both teams involved. For a further analysis, check out what Dave had to say on USS Mariner, Jason’s opinion on Prospect Insider, and what the guys at Lookout Landing and Sodo Mojo thought of the deal.

After the holidays (hopefully this weekend), I’m going to try and finish my post regarding the second name I like at first base for the M’s. Unfortunately, the option of Nick Swisher is all but dead after the Yanks traded Melky Cabrera to the Braves so lets hope my second name is still plausable…

Update: The Prospect in this deal is believed to be minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez. Consider me very underwhelmed…

Multiple outlets are reporting the Mariners have traded Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for reliever Brandon League and a prospect. No word yet on who this prospect is but I sure hope it’s a good one (aka Brett Wallace). Consider me officially worried for the first time this offseason….

More to come as this situation develops

Apparently I wasnt the only one thinking about what the M’s should do at first base. Be sure to take a look at Dave Cameron’s post over at USS Mariner for a more detailed look at all the first base options as Dave sees them

If you havent noticed yet, Jack Zduriencik and the M’s have been quite busy so far this offseason. Two gigantic trades have been made, and have us as Mariners fans extremely excited for the 2010 season. That said, I think everyone is very aware that the Mariners still need to add one more bat to their rapidly improving lineup. That bat, in all likelihood, is going to come from the first base position.

There has been an abundance of speculation recently regarding whether or not the M’s can/should raid the farm, and unload everything they have to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. Look, I’m not naive enough to sit here and say the M’s shouldn’t have interest in Gonzalez, or that they don’t have what it takes to acquire him, because quite frankly I will not put anything past Jack Zduriencik. Our GM has found a way to pull off numerous outstanding trades, once deemed unfathomable by many in the baseball community. However, rather than sit here and think about whether or not the M’s will acquire Gonzalez, or other superstar first basemen such as Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, and Joey Votto, lets take a look at some more realistic possibilities.

As a result of the Yankees acquisition of Nick Johnson, the free agent market, as I see it,  currently offers three options at first base for the M’s to choose from. The first, and most obvious option, would be for the M’s to resign Russell Branyan. This move would seem to be the most logical for the M’s, however, as Dave Cameron over at USS Mariner pointed out, the acquisition of Milton Bradley may affect the Mariners in more ways than one. Bradley is no spring chicken himself, and has battled numerous injuries throughout the course of his career. As a result, it might not make much sense for the M’s to have two guys on the roster that are big threats to spend a chunk of their season on the disabled list (not to mention Griffey as well). Dont get me wrong, I love what Branyan did for the M’s last season and would really like to see him back in 2010, but I’m sure JackZ is well aware of the risk of having Bradley, Branyan, and Griffey all on the same 25 man roster. The next option on the free agent market would be Carlos Delgado. Delgado has always been known for his ability to hit the ball, however, he is coming a season where he spent the large majority of it on the DL. Throw in the fact that Delgado is probably a better full-time option at DH than first base, and has publically stated his reluctance to play on the west coast, and I’m not so sure there’s a fit here. The final option on the free agent market is Adam Laroche. Via Ryan Langerhans, Baker has heard the M’s have expressed interest in Laroche. Laroche has been a model of consistency throughout the majority of his career, and isn’t much of a threat to see time on the disabled list. Laroche isn’t quite the hitter Delgado or Branyan are, but he would no doubt be a nice addition to an improving M’s ballclub. That said, there’s a rumor going around that Laroche is in search of a contract in the ball park of 3 years and $30 million. There is absolutely no chance Laroche gets that kind of money, nor should he. As a result, until Larcohe lowers his asking price, he isn’t much of an option for the M’s

Now, on to a couple of interesting trade scenarios. Last week, Dave Cameron over at USS Mariner had a great post up tossing around the idea of trading for Luke Scott. Scott would certainly be a very nice addition to the M’s, offering the versatility of playing first base, as well as being fairly solid defensively in the outfield. Undoubtedly, I would be very pleased if the M’s were to acquire Scott, however, there are at least two other options out there that I think may illustrate an even better acquisition than that of Scott.

If the title of this post didn’t give it away, the guy I’m going to talk about in this post is Nick Swisher. Sometime last week, I stated that my official “Trade for Nick Swisher Campaign” was going to take place this offseason. I hadn’t mentioned anything since then, until now, when I came across this nice little article by Ken Rosenthal. For those of you who don’t feel like reading the article, Rosenthal essentially claims the Yankees and Johnny Damon need to stop the nonsense and get a deal worked out between the two sides. Rosenthal then goes on to claim that if such an agreement is worked out, Nick Swisher would most likely be the odd man out. Obviously, when I started my Nick Swisher campaign my thought process was very similar, but it’s always nice to hear your thoughts being confirmed by a reliable source such as Rosenthal.

Much like Luke Scott, Nick Swisher is a very capable defensively in the outfield. Swisher has played all three outfield spots over the course of his career, but is best suited in one of the corner outfield positions. However, the M’s interest in Nick Swisher shouldn’t necessarily be tied into his ability to play the outfield, but rather his ability to play first base. Throughout the course of his career, Swisher has started 191 games at first base, and has been nothing worse than average at the position. In contrast, Luke Scott has only played in a handful of games at first base, and would take some time to further adjust to the position. Aside from the versatility and defensive capability Swisher brings to the table, the guy can also flat-out hit. Since 2006,  Swisher(who also happens to be a switch hitter) hasn’t seen his OBP dip below the .370 mark, aside from the 2008 season. Swisher posted a .375 wOBA in 2009, and projects as a .360-.370 guy going forward. Over the previous 4 seasons, Swisher has posted a WAR of 3 and above three times. I’m not sure about the rest of you guys, but I know I sure wouldn’t mind adding a 3 win, switch-hitter, who gets on base at an exceptional rate, and is capable of being a solution full-time at first base, while also being capable to play the outfield as well….

Up next, I’ll reveal the other guy who I think would be a nice (and maybe even better) addition to the lineup, and potential solution at first base