East Coast Mariner

It seems as though everyone and their mother in the Seattle blogosphere is falling in love with the “Adrian Gonzalez to Seattle” idea all over again. The speculation has been all over Twitter, I’ve seen an article regarding the issue on Hotstove.com, and I’ve even heard that Baker (among others) has begun the Lopez + Others for Gonzalez speculation. I have no idea why San Diego would be interested in Jose Lopez, but who knows, stranger things have indeed happened. A week or so ago I also read the rumor that JackZ had a 6-for-1 deal for Gonzalez on the table last year at the deadline, but Kevin Towers was holding out for a 7th prospect.  Most recently, rumor has spread that A-Gon will not sign with the Padres at a hometown discount, and will be seeking “Texiera money” when he does indeed hit free agency. This morning, Dave posted an excellent article on Fangraphs regarding the “Texiera money” demand. The article is really good so I wont try to summarize it for you guys, I’d recommend that you just go ahead and read it for yourselves.

I’m really not interested in engaging in any further speculation of Adrian Gonzalez in a Mariners uniform this season. Don’t get me wrong, I think Gonzalez is a great player and would certainly be a welcomed addition to the ball club. However, quite frankly, I’m just tired of hearing about the issue. There are far too many variables involved to try to speculate not only what it would take to acquire Gonzalez, but what it’s going to take to sign him to a long-term deal as well. Not to mention, there are other players out there the Mariners could target at the deadline if the Casey Kotchman experiment falters. So, from this point forward, I will do my best not to engage in any Adrian Gonzalez speculation, unless he does in fact end up in a Mariners uniform.

For those of you that haven’t seen this yet, be sure to check it out. Jon Paul Morosi does a great job in his piece on former-Mariner prospect Tyson Gillies. As you all know, Gillies is hearing impaired, and Morosi goes on to explain how it was first diagnosed and gives you some background on Gillies childhood. I’m a big fan of Gillies, given that he’s a great story to root for, and I’m certainly sad to see him go. However, he’ll be in the Phillies AA affiliate in Reading this year (which is 10 minutes from my house), along with Phillipe Aumont and JC Ramirez, and I’ll be sure to check all three of them out this summer. Also, please remember one thing about all this…

WE GOT CLIFF LEE!!!!

At this point, I really haven’t been able to think of anything that isn’t already being said by various outlets in the M’s blogosphere. With that in mind, here’s a look at what everyone else is writing about…

Baker has a couple different articles posted today regarding the arrival of Ichiro, Milton Bradley, and all the fun Griffey thinks Milton is going to be having this year (Not to mention his awesome bitterness over Canada’s loss to the US)

Speaking of Ichiro, Drayer has all the details regarding Ichiro’s “fashion statement”

Shannon also has a nice article concerning Jason Vargas and his quest to become the M’s #5 starter

Kirby Arnold also chimes in on all the fun Milton Bradley is going to be having

Jon Shields of ProballNW takes a look at some of the cut candidates currently on the 40 man roster

Prospect Insider’s Jason Churchill offers his take on teenage phenom Bryce Harper

Section 331 wishes Kenji Johjima good luck in Japan

Griffin Cooper of SodoMojo offers his insight on his #11 rated Mariners prospect, Makiel Cleto

Check out this awkward video on FoxSports.com where Jim Bowden interviews some current Baseball GM’s as well as our very own Dave Cameron of USS Mariner

Jeff from Lookout Landing feels bad for Cha Seung Baek

Harrison says his goodbyes to Russell Branyan

Jay Yencich details his current position in the M’s blogosphere

With Spring Training set to officially get underway, I thought I’d take a look at what figures to be one of the main sources of competition on the Mariners 25-man roster. Specifically, what I’m talking about is the #5 slot in the starting rotation. Currently, it would appear as though there is going to be a bunch of competition for this spot, with guys already on the 40 man roster like Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Garrett Olson, Luke French, and Ryan Feierabend all trying to stake their claim as to why they deserve this spot in the rotation. Dan Cortes could also be mentioned here, given that he is on the 40 man roster as well. However, I think the M’s will give him a little more time to develop in AA/AAA before giving him his shot. Also, keep in mind that Non-Roster invitees such as Yusmerio Petit and Nick Hill could potentially factor into this equation one way or another with a strong spring. However, to make this illustration more accurate, I’m going to assume that Nick Hill either starts the year at Tacoma in their starting rotation or is pushed to the bullpen. So, with that said, lets take a look at how these guys stack up against one another based on their career numbers in the big leagues, and who might be the best choice to assume this vacancy in the starting rotation:

After looking at the numbers, it seems to me as though there are 3 guys that stand out from the pack a little bit if you will. As you can tell, the 3 guys I’m talking about are Vargas, Fister, and Petit. Petit is the best bet to miss some bats, but Vargas isn’t too bad himself, and Fister is helped by his control of the strike zone. Also, of this group, Vargas gave up the least amount of home runs, while Petit and Fister suffered from some rather inflated home run totals. Fister and Vargas have the same FIP but when you normalize Fister’s home run total and look at his xFIP it is much lower than that of Vargas’s (4.5 vs 5.24). Perhaps the most intriguing guy in this trio though is Petit. When you combine his ability to miss bats with the fact that his home run totals would surely drop in Safeco and he’d be pitching with a great outfield defense behind him, Petit could really surprise some people if he ends up making the 25 man roster out of spring training.

Now, with that said, it’s really hard for me to try and get excited about this group of guys. Frankly, it’s my opinion that these guys are basically the dreaded AAAA label we all fear, and really wont add much value to the Mariners starting rotation. I understand that Erik Bedard was signed with the hope that he will take the spot of whoever originally becomes the #5 starter in the rotation and then add his value to this slot. However, if the Mariners are to truly contend this year, I just don’t think you can hold out hope that Bedard will be healthy by June and pitching in the rotation. The reality is Bedard might not pitch for the Mariners at all this season, and then you are stuck with any one of the aforementioned guys occupying the last spot in the rotation for what could be a significant amount of time. As a result, I really think it would be in the Mariners best interest to add a starting pitcher to this bunch and shore up the last spot in the rotation.

Many of you are probably assuming this is the part where I’m going to say how I think the Mariners should bring back Jarrod Washburn on a 1 year deal for about $2-4 million or so. While it’s true that I think Washburn would certainly add value to this team, that’s not exactly where I’m going with this. Rather, I’m advocating that the Mariners take a look at a couple of guys on other ball clubs during spring training that could really help boost this team above the rest of this division. This list of guys includes:

Andy Sonnastine- Rays

With the emergence of young guys like David Price and Wade Davis, it seems as though Sonnastine has lost his place in the Rays rotation. As evidence by his mid 80’s fastball, Sonnastine is no doubt a control pitcher. Little be known to most, Sonnastine was worth a total of 5.7 WAR for the Rays during the 2007 and 2008 seasons. However, in 2009 it seems as though Sonnastine suffered from quite a bit of bad luck working against him. Other than an increased BB/9 ratio, Sonnastine was really hurt by a high HR/FB ratio (13.9) and an unlucky BABIP (.336). In regressing these numbers to the mean, I would predict that Sonnastine returns to his 2+ win form in 2010 if given the opportunity. However, having spoken with RJ Anderson recently, the opportunity really doesn’t seem to exist for Sonnastine, either in the rotation or the bullpen. As a result, RJ thinks Sonnastine will most likely start the year in AAA, given that he does have an option left. I’d recommend that you keep an eye on Sonnastine in case the Rays look to deal him, much like they did with Jason Hammel last spring. If possible, Sonnastine would represent a really nice addition to the M’s rotation.

Manny Parra- Brewers

If there was someone you could compare Manny Parra to, it would probably be none other than former Mariner Brandon Morrow. Parra has teased the Brewers and major league baseball fans with the solid repertoire of pitches he has in his arsenal. However, much like Morrow, Parra’s skill set hasn’t consistently transferred into  success at the major league level, or has it? In an article on Fangraphs earlier today, Dave Cameron mentioned Parra as one of the guys he is high on for 2010. Much like Dave, I am also very high on Manny Parra because of his ability to miss bats and induce ground balls. Parra does walk a bunch of guys and give up some hits but his career FIP (4.40) is much more indicative of his skill set than his ERA (5.17) will tell you. Over the past 2 seasons Parra was worth just about 3 WAR. Going forward, Parra probably projects as a 1.5-2 win pitcher. Parra is out of options in Milwaukee and will battle with Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush for the final 2 spots in the rotation. If for some reason the Brewers think Suppan and Bush are their guys, you can bet Jack Zduriencik will be calling

Francisco Liriano/Glen Perkins- Twins

I’ve bunched these two guys together because in all likelihood one of them will be in the Twins rotation in 2010, and the other will likely be looking for a job elsewhere. To the best of my knowledge, both Liriano and Perkins are out of options and are slated to compete with Brian Duensing for the final spot in the Twins rotation. In all likelihood, Duensing will start the year in AAA, while one of these guys gets the spot in the Twins rotation (most likely Liriano) and the other is shopped elsewhere. The Twins were rumored as having shopped Glen Perkins the entire winter and I’m not going to really spend any time on Perkins other than to mention that I think he would be a SLIGHT upgrade over what we already have and probably isn’t worth making a deal for at this point. Liriano, on the other hand, is a different story. Much speculation has taken place amongst Mariner fans since Dave mentioned the possibility of a Liriano for Lopez swap. Having now signed Orlando Hudson, I highly doubt the Twins would have any interest in such a deal. However, if Liriano struggles in the spring much like he did in 09, there is a possibility that the Twins will be forced to move him elsewhere. I think we all know the story behind Liriano (dominating as a rookie in 2006, underwent TJ surgery and missed 2007, now back in the Twins rotation) but what a majority of people don’t realize is that Liriano has still been a pretty decent pitcher since coming back in 2008. Obviously the numbers aren’t what they once were, but make no mistake about it, if the opportunity arises where Liriano becomes available, I would certainly be one of the first guys in line to take a gamble on the guy. If I were a betting man, I’d imagine Jack Zduriencik wont be far behind me in line…

Dustin McGowan- Blue Jays

The last guy on this list I’m going to talk about is Dustin McGowan. For those of you who aren’t familiar with him, McGowan is a 28 year old right hander who missed all of 2009 (and part of 2008) due to a shoulder injury. McGowan’s strengths lie in his ability to throw hard, miss bats and generate ground balls (not a bad trio of traits to make a living off of). In 2007 McGowan was a 4 win pitcher, and in a partial season of 2008 he was worth 2.3 wins. McGowan is out of options and competing in a young and crowded Jays rotation. However, his availability is probably going to be determined by his health during spring training. If McGowan is not yet fully healthy the Jays will surely place him on the 60-day DL in order to keep him protected. As you can see, when healthy, McGowan would be an outstanding addition to any ball club. With that said, I’m not so sure that the Mariners would be interested in taking another gamble on an injury prone pitcher in addition to Bedard.

So, now that you guys have seen some of the options out there, who do you think the Mariners should go after? Should they stick with what they currently have? Or do you think they should try and resign Jarrod Washburn? I’m very interested in everyone’s thoughts on this so let me hear it!

Update: The M’s have brought Mike Sweeney back on a minor league deal. Sweeney doesnt stand much of a chance to make the 25 man roster but he will get an opportunity to showcase himself to the M’s and other teams as well

Update: Baker reports the M’s have signed RHP Jesus Colome to a minor league deal

Baker is back from his vacation and joins the parade (and by parade I mean Steve Kelley) of writer’s making apologies to current and former Mariners

Rick Adair tells Kirby Arnold that there might be a bright spot in Cliff Lee’s foot surgery after all

Larry Stone has a case study detailing five different pitchers and the effect a torn labrum had on each player

Larue analyzes the changes in the AL West

Dave Cameron of USS Mariner has an excellent piece up regarding the breakdown of incentives in the Bedard deal

Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing explains the projected depth in the Tacoma rotation

Scott Weber and ProBallNW analyze Russell Branyan’s falling price tag

Harrison of Far From Port chronicles the difficulties of being a blogger, and projecting the AL West

Jay Yencich is back and you can find him here

Jason Churchill explains what will be included in the Prospect Insider Handbook

Griffin Cooper of SodoMojo takes a look at Mariners blogosphere favorite Ricky Nolasco, and what happened (or didn’t happen) to him during the 2009 season

Update: Bedard is officially back on a 1 year deal with a mutual option in 2011 starting at $8 million. The deal in 2010 could potetially be worth $8.5 million with incentives. Yusmerio Petit was designated for assignment to make room for Bedard on the 40 man roster

Update: Looks like Street was correct after all. Bedard is back with the Mariners on a 1 year deal pending a physical. In an even more shocking turn of events, I did a lot of thinking last night after I wrote this post and I’m actually going to hop on the bandwagon (however small the wagon is) to resign Jarrod Washburn. If the Mariners can get Washburn on a cheap deal ($2-4 million) he makes a lot of sense for them. We’ve already agreed he’s better than the back of the rotation guys currently on the roster and the M’s now have Bedard to kind of hedge an addition of Washburn.

Jim Street has started all kind of speculation since he reported the Mariners were on the verge of a 1 year deal with Bedard for $1.5 million and a “boatload of incentives”. With my luck, Street will end up being right for once and this post will be rather useless, but I guess I’ll go through with it anyway.

It seems as though there’s a pretty relentless debate as to whether or not Jarrod Washburn and Erik Bedard would be good fits back in a Mariner uniform. I’ve heard numerous people cursing the idea of a reunification with either player.  Many Mariner fans still blame Bedard for the departures of Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherill and others. Undoubtedly, I think this is a rather stupid point to be making, considering Erik Bedard wasn’t the guy calling the shots. That prestigious honor would go to the legendary Bill Bavasi himself. Then, you have the issue with Washburn. I’m not here to make the argument that Jarrod Washburn lived up to the 4 year $37 million deal he signed a couple years back. Anyone of you that have watched Washburn pitch the past 4 years would know he’s not worth that kind of money. But once again, how can you blame Washburn for accepting such a deal? The issue here lies within our former management, not the player. Now, I admit I’m as guilty as it gets when it comes to Jarrod Washburn. I’ve bashed this guy left and right and openly stated that there was no chance he’d end up back in a Mariner uniform. Unfortunately, I have to admit that Jarrod Washburn is an upgrade to whoever is currently filling out the last spot in the Mariners rotation (Vargas, Fister, Olson, Hill…). Much like Washburn, Erik Bedard would also be another obvious upgrade to the Mariner’s starting rotation, even if he is only making 15 starts or so. Fortunately for us, the Mariners are probably not going to bring back both guys (although there is a recent theory where they would sign both and trade RRS). There is also a possibility they don’t bring back either player, but if I was a betting man, I’d wager that one of these guys ends up back in a Mariner uniform come Spring Training. For that reason, lets take a look at which guy makes the most sense for the Mariners:

To the surprise of just about noone, when Erik Bedard is on the mound, he is light years better than Jarrod Washburn. However, as we all know, the issue with Bedard doesnt lie in his abilities on the mound, rather, his inability to stay healthy. That said, even in less than half the number of innings pitched in 2009, Bedard produced a WAR very comparable to that of Washburn. So, the question that remains is would you rather get approximately 80 innings of excellent pitching from Bedard, or 180 innings of SLIGHTLY above average pitching from Washburn? In my opinion, the answer is rather simple. Even if Erik Bedard isn’t ready to pitch until June or July, there is still a good possibility that he’s going to be worth somewhere between 1.5-2 WAR. During the time that Bedard isn’t able to pitch, you can probably expect to get about half a win from a guy like Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, etc. So, if  the rumor that Bedard will in fact sign for $1.5 million plus incentives is true, then all I can really say is welcome back to the emerald city Erik Bedard!

Update: The Mariners and Casey Kotchman have avoided arbitration agreeing on a 1 year deal for $3.52 million

The Mariners have signed Ryan Garko to a 1 year deal for $550,000 with potential added incentives pushing the contract to $1.75 million if Garko reaches 600 PA’s (not very likely). Obviously, this is another great move by Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners. Given his ability to mash left-handed pitching, Garko forms a nice platoon option with Casey Kotchman. That said, a lot of speculation is now being made regarding who the pitcher is the Mariners will bring in, and if the Mariners will really go with an 11 man pitching staff out of spring training. I’ll address the potential starting pitcher that could be brought in with a later post, but here’s some opinions throughout the M’s blogosphere on recent trendy topics:

Larry Stone has a couple nice articles up regarding Jack Zduriencik’s press release concerning Ryan Garko, as well as the amazing attendance at FanFest this past weekend

Larry Larue details the recent turnover from last years opening day roster, and mentions that the Mariners could invite Mike Sweeney to spring training to help him catch on with another ball club

Dave Cameron of USS Mariner thinks the M’s will end up going with an 11 man pitching staff out of spring training

Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing has a nice article up regarding Playoff Odds and the Value of Volatility

ProballNW breaks down the details of Garko’s contract/playing time and Jon takes a look at the current lineup breakdowns

Chris Crawford of Prospect Insider thinks the Mariners will opt against using an 11 man pitching staff, and believes JackZ might have one more big move up his sleeve

The guys of SodoMojo have another post up regarding Griffey’s value to the Mariners. Griffin Cooper also has posted his chat with hotstove.com

Section 331 details her adventures at FanFest this past weekend

Update: In an unrelated note, I’ve decided to sell my 2003 Ford Mustang. The car is awesome and has a bunch of upgrades/specialties added to it. Anyone interested in purchasing this vehicle please click here

Just a short day after I made my argument why I thought Michael Saunders was a better option than any of the right-handed outfielders currently on the market, the Mariners announced today they have signed Eric Brynes. The deal is believed to be for the league minimum. Despite my biases of why I think Saunders should be the starting left fielder for the Mariners, I think this is another solid move by the M’s. Since signing his big deal after his outstanding 2007 season, Brynes has been nothing short of dreadful in each of the past 2 years. As a result of injuries (and a ridiculous amount of infield pop ups), Brynes hasn’t been anything near the player he once was just a couple years prior. That said, Brynes is still very good defensively in the outfield and capable of playing all 3 outfield positions. Also, despite his struggles in each of the past 2 seasons, Brynes has still been able to hit left-handers pretty well. This signing is another example of a low risk-high reward type of move by the Mariners. If Byrnes is healthy and at least half the player he once was, the Mariners make out like bandits in the deal. If Brynes performs as he has in the past 2 seasons, he can easily be released and another right-handed bat would be brought in (or Saunders would take over the position full-time).

Another solid move by Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners. I’d expect one more move to be made, and that move being the addition of a starting pitcher. More to come on this topic after the weekend is over…

Update: Zduriencik was quoted at today’s luncheon as saying the Mariners are looking to add a right-handed bat, and preferably a guy who can play multiple positions like left field, first base, and DH. Michael Saunders shot at breaking camp with the big league club just got a lot slimmer…

Like many of you, I’ve spent the past couple weeks wondering what would be Jack Zduriencik’s next move. About a week or two ago, I made the case that Jerry Hariston Jr should be the last position player acquired by the M’s. Since then, Hariston has signed with the Padres, and similar players like Randy Winn, Fernando Tatis, Xavier Nady, etc. have signed on elsewhere. That said, there are still a couple similar players that could fill the right-handed outfielder void the Mariners currently have (or seem to have anyway). Guys like Jermaine Dye, Eric Brynes, Ryan Garko, Rocco Baldelli, Marcus Thames, or Jonny Gomes could be of interest to the M’s. There is also the possibility that the Mariners sign a right-handed reserve infielder like Melvin Mora (the most recent rumor out there). However, please keep in mind that I am not advocating the Mariners sign any of these players, given, I don’t really like any of these guys and think going with Michael Saunders as your full-time left fielder and Ryan Langerhans as your 4th outfielder would be a better option than these guys anyway. Rather, I’m simply naming a couple of players that could be potential fits to the Mariners, if you do truly believe the M’s need to add a right-handed hitter who can play the outfield, and particularly left field. You could probably also make the case that giving the last roster spot to a guy already on the 40 man roster, such as Mike Carp, Matt Tuiasosopo, or Tommy Everidge would be a better move than acquiring any of the aforementioned players. However, I still think Saunders is a better option than any of these guys and you’d probably have a tough time trying to convince me otherwise (but please feel free to try and do so anyway)

Now, with that said, there are two names on the market (via free agency or trade) that represent more value in left field than Michael Saunders can currently offer. The two names I speak of are Johnny Damon and Josh Willingham. Much speculation has taken place recently whether or not either guy would be a good fit for the M’s. The proponents of Damon will mention that he is solid defensively and can still hit the ball quite a bit (they’ll also probably mention his ridiculously lousy throwing arm and really annoying personality). For the record, I can’t stand Damon as a player, but I realize that on a 1 year deal for about $4-6 million, he would be of significant value to the Mariners. In comparison, the proponents of Willingham will mention that he is only slightly below average defensively, and has significant right-handed power. I’ve made the case several times in the past that Willingham is a player the Mariners should target. That said, none of us know definitely if the Washington Nationals are willing to trade him, and what it might take to acquire him. The optimists will suggest we trade Jose Lopez to the Nationals to fill their void at second base, and receive Willingham in return to fill our void in left field. In my opinion, this is obviously an ideal scenario and probably not very likely to occur, but I will put absolutely NOTHING past Jack Zduriencik. In comparing the Damon and Willingham, I think both guys are worth about 2-3 wins this coming season. Both guys are of similar defensive value and would see time as the DH as well. When it comes to choosing which player I prefer, like many of you, I’d definitely choose Willingham if it involves dealing Lopez and signing Orlando Hudson. However, I’d be perfectly cool with signing Damon, trading Lopez for Francisco Liriano, and then signing Hudson to play second base. In reality, I’m not so sure either of these scenarios will happen, and if they dont, I’m of the stance that the Mariners are better off sticking with Michael Saunders in left field rather than any utility type player currently on the market

Oh how the tide has turned so ever quickly in the AL West. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Mariners have surely had the best offseason among these teams, but I have to admit, the A’s are becoming a very dangerous team right now. With an improved defense (Kouz and Crisp), the acquisition of Sheets to a very young and potent pitching staff, and the potential signing of Damon, the A’s have quickly opened the race in the AL West wide open at this point. To further illustrate this point, lets take a look at some of my expert projections (ha ha) and see how the A’s really stack up at this point:

Assuming the basis for a replacement level team is approximately 45 wins, by my projections, the A’s check in at about 85 wins. An 85 win season would mark a 10 win improvement upon the A’s 2009 season in which they won 75 games. However, the reason I think the A’s can be a real wild card in the West is because of the volatility they have on their roster (especially in the starting rotation). Brett Anderson is an ace in the making, and if you think he’ll improve on his 2009 season, he could be worth even more than the 4.5 wins I have him projected at. Next, you have to factor in Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer into this equation. Both guys did not pitch in 2009, but when healthy, could be worth well more than the 2.5 and 2 wins I have each projected at, respectively. Trevor Cahill is another youngster who could really improve on his 2009 season, and Dallas Braden has been consistently worth about 2.5 wins each of the past two seasons. The lineup is a bit less interesting but the A’s have surely improved their defense. Sweeney, Davis, and Crisp are all very good defenders in the outfield and make up an above average group as a whole. Kouzmanoff, Ellis, and Pennington are also above average in the infield, and Suzuki is known as an excellent backstop. One other thing to keep in mind, there’s a lot of rumors going around regarding the possibility of the A’s bringing in Johnny Damon on a 1 year $4-5 million deal. If so, this would be a very nice move by the A’s, and all of a sudden you would be looking at a 86-88 win team, on paper.

Boy, talk about one hell of an interesting division. Jack, the ball is officially back in your court…