The Ghosts of Mariners Past
Update: Bedard is officially back on a 1 year deal with a mutual option in 2011 starting at $8 million. The deal in 2010 could potetially be worth $8.5 million with incentives. Yusmerio Petit was designated for assignment to make room for Bedard on the 40 man roster
Update: Looks like Street was correct after all. Bedard is back with the Mariners on a 1 year deal pending a physical. In an even more shocking turn of events, I did a lot of thinking last night after I wrote this post and I’m actually going to hop on the bandwagon (however small the wagon is) to resign Jarrod Washburn. If the Mariners can get Washburn on a cheap deal ($2-4 million) he makes a lot of sense for them. We’ve already agreed he’s better than the back of the rotation guys currently on the roster and the M’s now have Bedard to kind of hedge an addition of Washburn.
Jim Street has started all kind of speculation since he reported the Mariners were on the verge of a 1 year deal with Bedard for $1.5 million and a “boatload of incentives”. With my luck, Street will end up being right for once and this post will be rather useless, but I guess I’ll go through with it anyway.
It seems as though there’s a pretty relentless debate as to whether or not Jarrod Washburn and Erik Bedard would be good fits back in a Mariner uniform. I’ve heard numerous people cursing the idea of a reunification with either player. Many Mariner fans still blame Bedard for the departures of Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherill and others. Undoubtedly, I think this is a rather stupid point to be making, considering Erik Bedard wasn’t the guy calling the shots. That prestigious honor would go to the legendary Bill Bavasi himself. Then, you have the issue with Washburn. I’m not here to make the argument that Jarrod Washburn lived up to the 4 year $37 million deal he signed a couple years back. Anyone of you that have watched Washburn pitch the past 4 years would know he’s not worth that kind of money. But once again, how can you blame Washburn for accepting such a deal? The issue here lies within our former management, not the player. Now, I admit I’m as guilty as it gets when it comes to Jarrod Washburn. I’ve bashed this guy left and right and openly stated that there was no chance he’d end up back in a Mariner uniform. Unfortunately, I have to admit that Jarrod Washburn is an upgrade to whoever is currently filling out the last spot in the Mariners rotation (Vargas, Fister, Olson, Hill…). Much like Washburn, Erik Bedard would also be another obvious upgrade to the Mariner’s starting rotation, even if he is only making 15 starts or so. Fortunately for us, the Mariners are probably not going to bring back both guys (although there is a recent theory where they would sign both and trade RRS). There is also a possibility they don’t bring back either player, but if I was a betting man, I’d wager that one of these guys ends up back in a Mariner uniform come Spring Training. For that reason, lets take a look at which guy makes the most sense for the Mariners:
| IP | K/9 | BB/9 | AVG | FIP | WAR | |
| Bedard | 83 | 9.76 | 3.69 | 0.217 | 3.55 | 1.9 |
| Washburn | 176 | 5.11 | 2.51 | 0.244 | 4.58 | 2.1 |
To the surprise of just about noone, when Erik Bedard is on the mound, he is light years better than Jarrod Washburn. However, as we all know, the issue with Bedard doesnt lie in his abilities on the mound, rather, his inability to stay healthy. That said, even in less than half the number of innings pitched in 2009, Bedard produced a WAR very comparable to that of Washburn. So, the question that remains is would you rather get approximately 80 innings of excellent pitching from Bedard, or 180 innings of SLIGHTLY above average pitching from Washburn? In my opinion, the answer is rather simple. Even if Erik Bedard isn’t ready to pitch until June or July, there is still a good possibility that he’s going to be worth somewhere between 1.5-2 WAR. During the time that Bedard isn’t able to pitch, you can probably expect to get about half a win from a guy like Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, etc. So, if the rumor that Bedard will in fact sign for $1.5 million plus incentives is true, then all I can really say is welcome back to the emerald city Erik Bedard!
Mike,
I am still on the fence about Washburn.
If the M’s sign him, then the door really closes on at minimum 3 guys, and Jack will have to make a couple of trades just to so we get something in return for a couple of guys. This may be OK, especially if the M’s make the playoffs.
Specifically, what I see if / when Washburn is signed is the following, especially considering that Bedard is signed:
- Petit is traded or cut.
- Vargas is traded, moved to Tacoma or possibly even cut.
- Olsen is made into a reliever…this may have already happened, but.
- Hill needs to fight to stay a starter just in AAA, and he hopefully wins that battle.
- Feierabend needs to fight to stay a starter in AAA, and he probably loses that battle.
- Gaby Hernandez, Pauley, Seddon, and Engles are all fighting for probably one spot in rotation in Tacoma…and at least one of these guys ends up getting traded or cut…while the rest are transitioned to relief.
- Shell, Bray and Pena are now fighting over 2 spots in the Tacoma pen with the above non-starters.
- Varvaro probably stays in AA.
- Cortes and Robles pitch mostly if not entirely in AA this year.
- Lastly, Hume or Parker or Delgado then has to moved to relief in AA with the excess pitching in AA.
Again, depth is good and the goal is to make the playoffs, so…
Just my 2 cents worth.
Rain,
If this is the argument why the M’s shouldn’t bring back Washburn then I think the solution is rather simple. Petit is rather irrelevant regardless if Washburn is resigned or not. Vargas is probably the #5 starter at this point, if Washburn is brought aboard he serves as depth in the rotation and either pitches out of the bullpen or in the Tacoma starting roation (neither is a bad option). Olsen is probably already destined to be a reliever at this point anyway. Feierabend, Hernandez, etc. are replacement level players anyway and really arent relevant to any conversation the big league team. Robles is going to be pitching in AA anyway and if he warrants a promotion to Tacoma he will get one. Cortes and Hill will have spots in the Tacoma rotation if they pitch well in spring training, it doesnt really matter what any of the other guys do because Hill and Cortes are prospects and the others are not.
An acquisition of Washburn really directly affects a couple people. Those people being Luke French, Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, and Garret Olson. If Washburn is brought aboard, one of these guys wont have a spot in the rotation and one will probably lose out on a spot in the bullpen. Either way, Washburn is more valuable to the Mariners than any of these guys are so if he signs for cheap, its a good deal for the Mariners.
Mike,
Like I started with…I am still on the fence.
I think (like you) that Washburn probably helps the M’s make the playoffs better than anyone currently on the staff. And the goal is to make the playoffs.
Still, Washburn is not young, and there is no guarantee that Washburn 2007 does not show up versus the 2009 version. If that happened, then Vargas / Fister / French / Hill would be just as good as signing Washburn. Is it worth the risk??
However, on the other hand, I personally believe that a team needs to have at least one rookie pitcher and one rookie position player brought up each year, to help the team grow for the coming seasons. This does not mean that each rookie plays a critical role, or even stays on the roster for the full year, but it does give each player in the system a reason to bust his butt that much more…and it helps prevent players getting de-motivated, which I believe happened in the 90’s with the M’s – with players like Posednick and Ibanez. Once they left the M’s system, and were given a legitimate chance to start, they blossomed.
Still making the playoffs is the goal, and it has bee really long since we have been there. Lastly, Vargas / Fister / Olsen / French all had chances last year…and all had mixed results, so there are no guarantees here either.
Thus, I guess it is best to just trust Jack.
It was so much easier knowing what the right answer was when Bavasi was GM…
The Washburn in 2007 you speak of was worth 1.9 WAR. In 2009, Jarrod Washburn was worth 2.1 WAR. Granted, his stint with the Tigers really affected his total value. However, his value in 2009 with the Mariners was more of a credit to a great defense behind him, and some luck that was bound for the regression he experienced with the Tigers. Even so, Jarrod Washburn is something like a 1.5-2 win player going forward. The other guys (Fister, French, Vargas, Olson) are more like replacement level to .5 win players going forward. I understand you’re on the fence about bringing Washburn back but I think it’s pretty obvious at this point that he would certainly increase the chances of the M’s making the playoffs this year (as you mentioned).