East Coast Mariner

Update: Bedard is officially back on a 1 year deal with a mutual option in 2011 starting at $8 million. The deal in 2010 could potetially be worth $8.5 million with incentives. Yusmerio Petit was designated for assignment to make room for Bedard on the 40 man roster

Update: Looks like Street was correct after all. Bedard is back with the Mariners on a 1 year deal pending a physical. In an even more shocking turn of events, I did a lot of thinking last night after I wrote this post and I’m actually going to hop on the bandwagon (however small the wagon is) to resign Jarrod Washburn. If the Mariners can get Washburn on a cheap deal ($2-4 million) he makes a lot of sense for them. We’ve already agreed he’s better than the back of the rotation guys currently on the roster and the M’s now have Bedard to kind of hedge an addition of Washburn.

Jim Street has started all kind of speculation since he reported the Mariners were on the verge of a 1 year deal with Bedard for $1.5 million and a “boatload of incentives”. With my luck, Street will end up being right for once and this post will be rather useless, but I guess I’ll go through with it anyway.

It seems as though there’s a pretty relentless debate as to whether or not Jarrod Washburn and Erik Bedard would be good fits back in a Mariner uniform. I’ve heard numerous people cursing the idea of a reunification with either player.  Many Mariner fans still blame Bedard for the departures of Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherill and others. Undoubtedly, I think this is a rather stupid point to be making, considering Erik Bedard wasn’t the guy calling the shots. That prestigious honor would go to the legendary Bill Bavasi himself. Then, you have the issue with Washburn. I’m not here to make the argument that Jarrod Washburn lived up to the 4 year $37 million deal he signed a couple years back. Anyone of you that have watched Washburn pitch the past 4 years would know he’s not worth that kind of money. But once again, how can you blame Washburn for accepting such a deal? The issue here lies within our former management, not the player. Now, I admit I’m as guilty as it gets when it comes to Jarrod Washburn. I’ve bashed this guy left and right and openly stated that there was no chance he’d end up back in a Mariner uniform. Unfortunately, I have to admit that Jarrod Washburn is an upgrade to whoever is currently filling out the last spot in the Mariners rotation (Vargas, Fister, Olson, Hill…). Much like Washburn, Erik Bedard would also be another obvious upgrade to the Mariner’s starting rotation, even if he is only making 15 starts or so. Fortunately for us, the Mariners are probably not going to bring back both guys (although there is a recent theory where they would sign both and trade RRS). There is also a possibility they don’t bring back either player, but if I was a betting man, I’d wager that one of these guys ends up back in a Mariner uniform come Spring Training. For that reason, lets take a look at which guy makes the most sense for the Mariners:

To the surprise of just about noone, when Erik Bedard is on the mound, he is light years better than Jarrod Washburn. However, as we all know, the issue with Bedard doesnt lie in his abilities on the mound, rather, his inability to stay healthy. That said, even in less than half the number of innings pitched in 2009, Bedard produced a WAR very comparable to that of Washburn. So, the question that remains is would you rather get approximately 80 innings of excellent pitching from Bedard, or 180 innings of SLIGHTLY above average pitching from Washburn? In my opinion, the answer is rather simple. Even if Erik Bedard isn’t ready to pitch until June or July, there is still a good possibility that he’s going to be worth somewhere between 1.5-2 WAR. During the time that Bedard isn’t able to pitch, you can probably expect to get about half a win from a guy like Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, etc. So, if  the rumor that Bedard will in fact sign for $1.5 million plus incentives is true, then all I can really say is welcome back to the emerald city Erik Bedard!

Update: The Mariners and Casey Kotchman have avoided arbitration agreeing on a 1 year deal for $3.52 million

The Mariners have signed Ryan Garko to a 1 year deal for $550,000 with potential added incentives pushing the contract to $1.75 million if Garko reaches 600 PA’s (not very likely). Obviously, this is another great move by Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners. Given his ability to mash left-handed pitching, Garko forms a nice platoon option with Casey Kotchman. That said, a lot of speculation is now being made regarding who the pitcher is the Mariners will bring in, and if the Mariners will really go with an 11 man pitching staff out of spring training. I’ll address the potential starting pitcher that could be brought in with a later post, but here’s some opinions throughout the M’s blogosphere on recent trendy topics:

Larry Stone has a couple nice articles up regarding Jack Zduriencik’s press release concerning Ryan Garko, as well as the amazing attendance at FanFest this past weekend

Larry Larue details the recent turnover from last years opening day roster, and mentions that the Mariners could invite Mike Sweeney to spring training to help him catch on with another ball club

Dave Cameron of USS Mariner thinks the M’s will end up going with an 11 man pitching staff out of spring training

Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing has a nice article up regarding Playoff Odds and the Value of Volatility

ProballNW breaks down the details of Garko’s contract/playing time and Jon takes a look at the current lineup breakdowns

Chris Crawford of Prospect Insider thinks the Mariners will opt against using an 11 man pitching staff, and believes JackZ might have one more big move up his sleeve

The guys of SodoMojo have another post up regarding Griffey’s value to the Mariners. Griffin Cooper also has posted his chat with hotstove.com

Section 331 details her adventures at FanFest this past weekend

Update: In an unrelated note, I’ve decided to sell my 2003 Ford Mustang. The car is awesome and has a bunch of upgrades/specialties added to it. Anyone interested in purchasing this vehicle please click here

Just a short day after I made my argument why I thought Michael Saunders was a better option than any of the right-handed outfielders currently on the market, the Mariners announced today they have signed Eric Brynes. The deal is believed to be for the league minimum. Despite my biases of why I think Saunders should be the starting left fielder for the Mariners, I think this is another solid move by the M’s. Since signing his big deal after his outstanding 2007 season, Brynes has been nothing short of dreadful in each of the past 2 years. As a result of injuries (and a ridiculous amount of infield pop ups), Brynes hasn’t been anything near the player he once was just a couple years prior. That said, Brynes is still very good defensively in the outfield and capable of playing all 3 outfield positions. Also, despite his struggles in each of the past 2 seasons, Brynes has still been able to hit left-handers pretty well. This signing is another example of a low risk-high reward type of move by the Mariners. If Byrnes is healthy and at least half the player he once was, the Mariners make out like bandits in the deal. If Brynes performs as he has in the past 2 seasons, he can easily be released and another right-handed bat would be brought in (or Saunders would take over the position full-time).

Another solid move by Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners. I’d expect one more move to be made, and that move being the addition of a starting pitcher. More to come on this topic after the weekend is over…

Update: Zduriencik was quoted at today’s luncheon as saying the Mariners are looking to add a right-handed bat, and preferably a guy who can play multiple positions like left field, first base, and DH. Michael Saunders shot at breaking camp with the big league club just got a lot slimmer…

Like many of you, I’ve spent the past couple weeks wondering what would be Jack Zduriencik’s next move. About a week or two ago, I made the case that Jerry Hariston Jr should be the last position player acquired by the M’s. Since then, Hariston has signed with the Padres, and similar players like Randy Winn, Fernando Tatis, Xavier Nady, etc. have signed on elsewhere. That said, there are still a couple similar players that could fill the right-handed outfielder void the Mariners currently have (or seem to have anyway). Guys like Jermaine Dye, Eric Brynes, Ryan Garko, Rocco Baldelli, Marcus Thames, or Jonny Gomes could be of interest to the M’s. There is also the possibility that the Mariners sign a right-handed reserve infielder like Melvin Mora (the most recent rumor out there). However, please keep in mind that I am not advocating the Mariners sign any of these players, given, I don’t really like any of these guys and think going with Michael Saunders as your full-time left fielder and Ryan Langerhans as your 4th outfielder would be a better option than these guys anyway. Rather, I’m simply naming a couple of players that could be potential fits to the Mariners, if you do truly believe the M’s need to add a right-handed hitter who can play the outfield, and particularly left field. You could probably also make the case that giving the last roster spot to a guy already on the 40 man roster, such as Mike Carp, Matt Tuiasosopo, or Tommy Everidge would be a better move than acquiring any of the aforementioned players. However, I still think Saunders is a better option than any of these guys and you’d probably have a tough time trying to convince me otherwise (but please feel free to try and do so anyway)

Now, with that said, there are two names on the market (via free agency or trade) that represent more value in left field than Michael Saunders can currently offer. The two names I speak of are Johnny Damon and Josh Willingham. Much speculation has taken place recently whether or not either guy would be a good fit for the M’s. The proponents of Damon will mention that he is solid defensively and can still hit the ball quite a bit (they’ll also probably mention his ridiculously lousy throwing arm and really annoying personality). For the record, I can’t stand Damon as a player, but I realize that on a 1 year deal for about $4-6 million, he would be of significant value to the Mariners. In comparison, the proponents of Willingham will mention that he is only slightly below average defensively, and has significant right-handed power. I’ve made the case several times in the past that Willingham is a player the Mariners should target. That said, none of us know definitely if the Washington Nationals are willing to trade him, and what it might take to acquire him. The optimists will suggest we trade Jose Lopez to the Nationals to fill their void at second base, and receive Willingham in return to fill our void in left field. In my opinion, this is obviously an ideal scenario and probably not very likely to occur, but I will put absolutely NOTHING past Jack Zduriencik. In comparing the Damon and Willingham, I think both guys are worth about 2-3 wins this coming season. Both guys are of similar defensive value and would see time as the DH as well. When it comes to choosing which player I prefer, like many of you, I’d definitely choose Willingham if it involves dealing Lopez and signing Orlando Hudson. However, I’d be perfectly cool with signing Damon, trading Lopez for Francisco Liriano, and then signing Hudson to play second base. In reality, I’m not so sure either of these scenarios will happen, and if they dont, I’m of the stance that the Mariners are better off sticking with Michael Saunders in left field rather than any utility type player currently on the market

I’ve read about a dozen posts and seen about a thousand comments regarding whether or not the Mariners can/should acquire first basemen Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres. However, for some odd reason, I feel some sort of obligation to give my opinion (for whatever its worth) on the subject. So here it goes….

It’s pretty obvious that a player like Adrian Gonzalez would be a HUGE addition to the Mariners. Just entering his prime, Gonzalez will be 28 years old and is coming off a 6+ win season. Can you imagine what type of impact adding a 6 win player would do for the M’s. That said, Gonzalez was worth on average about 3.5 wins from 2006-2008 and is probably something more like a 4-4.5 win player going forward. Currently, the Mariners have Casey Kotchman, who projects as something like a 1-1.5 win player this year. Needless to say, adding an additional 3 wins to an already vastly improved lineup would be simply awesome. Also, keep in mind that Gonzalez will only earn $4.75 million in 2010 and has a 2011 club option for $5.5 million. As a result, it seems fairly clear that Gonzalez is the type of player the M’s would certainly be attracted to. However, the question that remains is whether or not Gonzalez will be available, and when it would make the most sense for the M’s to make a run at him.

At this point, I feel fairly confident the Padres will decide not to trade Gonzalez this offseason. Fact is, the Padres have to sell tickets and if the Padres want to sell tickets then they have to keep Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is undoubtedly the star player in the Padres organization(think what King Felix is to the M’s) and if they were to trade Gonzalez yet this offseason, their total fan base would go from something like 7 people to 0 in a heartbeat. That said, I’m also fairly confident that the Padres will not be a playoff team in 2010. Surely, the Padres would like to receive the largest possible return they can get on Gonzalez before they can no longer afford him after 2011. If this is the case, it would make much more sense from the Padres perspective to trade Gonzalez before the deadline in July to a team in the playoff hunt who desperately requires his services. This team in contention will almost certainly be willing to give the Padres a more substantial return than they would get if they waited until he is ready to enter his lame duck season in 2011. So, if the Padres are willing to trade Gonzalez at the deadline in July, who might be interested?

After looking at this list, some of the teams that might have interest in Gonzalez would be the Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays, Rangers, White Sox, Mariners, A’s, Braves, Mets, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers, and Angels. However, since were talking about the Padres trading Gonzalez at the deadline, many of these teams will not be in playoff contention, and therefore, will not be interested in acquiring Gonzalez at this time. Of these teams, the Orioles, Blue Jays, A’s, Mets, and Pirates will probably not be in contention come July. Also, the White Sox, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers and Angles are probably long shots to acquire Gonzalez because each team either already has an established first basemen, cant afford Gonzalez, or is in the same division as the Padres. So, who’s left?

Upon reviewing this revised list of potential destinations for Adrian Gonzalez, it would seem as though the teams that are the most likely fit are the Mariners and the Braves. Of these two teams, the Braves have the much stronger farm system and could most likely offer a more substantial package than the M’s could put together.

But as for my opinion you ask?

The Braves? Fuck the Braves!

Update: Baker reports the 1 year deal for Brandon League is worth $1.08 million. As of now, the only guy left to sign is Kotchman
Update: The M’s have signed Brandon League to a 1 year deal avoiding arbitration. As I type this, the amount of money in the contract hasnt yet been released

Baker with the scoop on the Felix extension, as well as interviews with Lowe and Aardsma regarding their new 1 year deals

Kirby Arnold covers the same topics over at the Herald

Divish sums up a nice piece done by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick on Jack Zduriencik

Shannon Drayer posts her thoughts on the Felix deal, and what it means to the Mariners

Dave Cameron breaks down the Felix deal like only he can over at Fangraphs

Jeff from Lookout Landing with a nice piece on the Felix contract and the State of the Payroll

Jon Shields of ProballNW gives the yearly breakdown on the Felix contract

Griffin Cooper over at SodoMojo takes a look at some theoretical future depth charts

Jason Churchill of ProspectInsider has the latest on the M’s interest in Ben Sheets and an up to date Mariners payroll in 2010

Harrison covers the trendy topic of Ben Sheets over at FarFromPort

Update: Jon Heyman is tweeting he has heard King Felix will receive a $3.5 million signing bonus and will make $20 million in the final year of his deal in 2014

Update: As if JackZ hasn’t been busy enough, the Mariners have announced they have resigned Mark Lowe to a 1 year $1.15 million deal and David Aardsma to a 1 year $2.75 million deal

Update: The word getting around is the extension is a 5 year deal worth $78 million. JackZ, you sir, are truly the coolest man alive…

ESPN is reporting the Mariners have locked up King Felix to a multi-year contract!! Numbers haven’t yet been announced, but this is obviously a huge deal! It’s getting real late on the east coast, and my first day of classes in my last semester of college start tomorrow  so I’m going to have to head to bed. I’ll update as soon as I’m up in the morning. Talk about going to bed with something great to sleep on…

Update: The Mariners have signed 1B Tommy Everidge to a major league contract. Everidge occupies the last spot on the 40 man roster. With conceivable spots left to fill, you’ve got to think JackZ has a couple more moves up his sleeve in the next month or so

Much speculation has been made regarding what the Mariners are going to do with that final roster spot they have available. FoxSports.com recently indicated the M’s have inquired about the services of Fernando Tatis. Jeff at Lookout Landing recently put up a nice post about this last roster spot, and what Fernando Tatis could potentially offer to the M’s. Griffin Cooper and the guys at SodoMojo also have explored the idea of bringing in Xavier Nady to fill this void, as well as their fondness for Michael Saunders.

With that being said, I don’t necessarily think any of the aforementioned players should be the primary solution for the Mariners. Like the guys at SodoMojo, I don’t think Nady is the answer here but I’m also very high on Michael Saunders, and think he certainly could (and should be) the Mariners left fielder of the future. However, I think Saunders might need a little more time in AAA to further hone his skills until he is ready to take over the gig full-time sometime this year, or in 2011. As Jeff pointed out, Tatis is no stud, but he would give the Mariners some versatility coming off the bench as a right-handed hitter who can play just about any position on the field.  An acquisition of Tatis would represent another solid (but not flashy) move by the Mariners. However. there happens to be one other name Jeff mentions in his post that I think would represent a better move by the M’s.

The guy I’m talking about is Jerry Hariston Jr. Like Tatis, Hariston is a right-handed bat that is not going to drastically impact the M’s in one way or the other. Nevertheless, Hariston is a solid player who has played every position on the field other than Catcher. Not only has Hariston played all these positions, he has actually played them all fairly well. Since the inception of UZR, Hariston has never posted a UZR below -0.5, and has been right around +2 or so the past 3 years. Quite miraculously, Hariston has actually posted a UZR of 27.5 in about 1800 innings of work in the outfield. At 33, Hariston is also about 2 years younger than Tatis, and has seen more than his fair share of playing time in the AL.

On the other hand, despite his superior defensive skills, Hariston doesn’t quite offer the same kind of bat that Tatis possesses. Tatis posted a .338 wOBA last year for the Mets and is probably something like a .280/.340/.780 guy going forward. In comparison, Hariston posted a .312 wOBA this past year for the Reds/Yankees, and is more like a .270/.320/.710 type of guy going forward. In addition, over the past 2 seasons, Tatis has been worth 3.1 WAR, or about 1.5 WAR per season. In comparison, Hariston has been worth 3.5 WAR, or about 1.75 per season. Obviously, the differences are rather minimal, and which player you prefer is probably a name recognition type of thing. However, given his versatility and superior defensive skillset, my prefernce is with Hariston.

In case anyone is wondering, I did not get the chance to attend the USSM/LL event that took place yesterday. Such is life of being a college student with no money for a plane ticket, while living on the complete opposite side of the country. But this post wasnt designed to create a “woah is me” kind of story, rather, to appreciate the magnificent fans/bloggers we have of the Seattle Mariners. Being surrounded by Philadelphia fans, I’ve really learned to appreciate  the sincerity, knowledge, and integrity that goes along with being a Mariners fan. It’s very refreshing to wake up every morning and not have to worry about whether or not my fellow fans are going to hop on the proverbial “band-wagon” every time my team goes from bad to good again. Not to mention whether or not my fellow fans are going to boo a player when he all but breaks his neck on the field, or blame the referees/umpires every time my team loses the game. Anyway, my point is I LOVE being a Seattle Mariner’s fan and I LOVE our front office!